Bitcoin, Blockchain, and Network Economics

Research, insight, and education focusing on bitcoin, blockchain, digital assets, and network economics.

hot CIDR Podcast

Diminishing Marginal Returns: A Bitcoin Myth

A podcast discussion of recent CIDR Research. Bitcoin’s current market structure allows for at least constant, if not increasing, marginal returns, unlike traditional assets. Statistical tests show no clear pattern of declining returns over time. Examples include Bitcoin's nonlinear price effects due to capital inflows and its network-driven value proposition, which differs from physical production models. It refutes common misconceptions about Bitcoin’s price behavior and mining efficiency, emphasizing the role of adoption dynamics and macroeconomic factors in shaping its value trajectory. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s future returns may not necessarily decline, contrary to popular belief.

Diminishing Marginal Returns: A Bitcoin Myth

Bitcoin’s Best Performance May Lie Ahead

This research note challenges the notion that Bitcoin currently exhibits diminishing marginal returns. It argues that Bitcoin’s market structure allows for at least constant, if not increasing, marginal returns, unlike traditional assets. Statistical tests show no clear pattern of declining returns over time. The report highlights Bitcoin's nonlinear price effects due to capital inflows and its network-driven value proposition, which differs from physical production models. It refutes common misconceptions about Bitcoin’s price behavior and mining efficiency, emphasizing the role of adoption dynamics and macroeconomic factors in shaping its value trajectory. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s future returns may not necessarily decline, contrary to popular belief.

10 February 2025

The Election Year Effect in Bitcoin

Bitcoin exhibits intriguing seasonal trends, with volatility patterns that differ sharply between election and non-election years. Data across multiple years shows that Bitcoin’s price swings are more pronounced outside election years, driven by global uncertainties. October stands out for its momentum effect, often influencing November returns and presenting potential opportunities for investors. These findings suggest that while Bitcoin is volatile, its price behavior is shaped by election cycles, offering insights into how it responds to market forces during different times of the year.

4 November 2024

The Network Effect

The network effect is more than just rapid growth on a digital platform. It's the hidden force that surreptitiously shapes our choices and determines which technologies dominate our lives.

In 'The Network Effect: From Doom to Zoom,' you'll uncover how seemingly simple games paved the way for today's interconnected digital landscape; the surprising links between social media giants and cryptocurrency networks; and the most important factor that leads some technologies explode in popularity while others fade into obscurity.

This booklet takes you from broadband to bitcoin, revealing the interconnected elements that play out over and over in network growth. Whether you're a tech enthusiast, investor, or simply curious about the digital age, 'The Network Effect' offers essential insights into the forces driving our online future.

Ready to see the digital world through new eyes? Grab your copy now!